THE FUTURE OF THE EPISCOPAL CHURCH

A Hard Look at the Numbers

By The Rev. Kevin Martin

In the current Episcopal Church crisis, a number of claims are being made about the health and vitality of our denomination. Most of these are based on political spin, not on any hard data. I would like to try to move beyond this spin and take a look at our present organizational situation.

Let’s start with the most extreme statements I am hearing on the liberal and conservative sides of the church.

The Dean of EDS tells us that the actions of General Convention will open the doors of the Episcopal Church to thousands of new people because it declares that we are an open and inclusive church.

One conservative leader has stated that ECUSA could lose 50 percent of its membership over the next few years.

But, I believe that the most interesting — and potentially most dangerous — spin comes from the Chancellor of the National Church and represents the “official line” of 815. The chancellor is assuring Episcopal leaders that we have lost people before over the issue of prayer book revision and women’s ordination, but the denomination “recovered from this and went on.”

What are we to make of these comments? For many in the church, their position seems to be “Our minds are made up; don’t confuse us with the facts.” But this is precisely what the leaders of our community need — to look at the facts.

Let me also assure you that the data that I am using comes from the National Church’s own information. In other words, I am not making this up!

So let’s begin with a 60-year look at two pieces of information: actual ECUSA membership and the percentage of U.S. population represented. From 1930 to 1965, both grew — peaking in 1965 at 3.6 million members (1.9% of the U.S. population). Since then, both have been in steady decline — and percentage has dropped faster than raw membership.

Key observations:

• For the past 40 years, ECUSA has been in steady decline.

• Only the period immediately after the 1979 Prayer Book and women’s ordination saw a temporary slowdown in decline.

• The fastest decline came in the first five years of Presiding Bishop Edmond Browning’s tenure.

• A slight slowdown occurred early in Frank Griswold’s tenure — but the current crisis will likely accelerate decline again.

These trends refute both liberal optimism (“we’ll attract new members”) and conservative alarmism (“we’ll lose half our people overnight”). Realistically, attrition may be ~100,000 in the near term — but the deeper concern is the erosion of core active members (estimated 840,000 who attend regularly and supply 70% of giving).

Why are the Chancellor’s remarks dangerous? Because they foster complacency. Leadership denial is widespread. As a member of the 2020 Taskforce, I can confirm that neither the House of Bishops nor Executive Council has reviewed this data. When we suggested they do, we were told not to be “negative,” since the Presiding Bishop did not want to portray our situation negatively.

Two conclusions:

ECUSA has not demonstrated a sustainable place in U.S. society for 40 years — and current actions will likely worsen decline.

If trends continue for just five more years, ECUSA’s status may fall to that of fringe groups like Christian Scientists or Unitarians.

Today, more people believe they’ve been abducted by aliens than are members of ECUSA. And unlike us, their numbers are growing.