WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

By Kevin Martin

7/22/2004

What has been the consequence of last year's controversial decision to consent to the election of Gene Robinson as Bishop of New Hampshire?

As I travel about the Episcopal Church — my most frequently asked question these days is, "What do you think will happen next in the Episcopal Church?"

As we approach the first-year anniversary of the consent to Gene Robinson's election, I would like to address some of the issues related to this question.

This decision has badly fractured and divided the Episcopal Church. Further, it has provoked a crisis throughout the whole Anglican Communion.

Locally, many congregations and dioceses have experienced a drop in financial support. They have had to cut staff and program and make serious adjustments. Many congregations have lost significant families.

Many congregations have redirected funding. Some congregations have removed themselves from ECUSA. A series of spin-off congregations have formed that are looking to the Network or AMIA for affiliation and support. Of course, we also have become inwardly focused as a denomination and less concerned about the great commission or the great commandment and more concerned with who will be in control.

Meanwhile, our national leadership seems to be largely in denial over the negative effects of this decision. Our own Presiding Bishop and many others try to spin present events in a positive light. In fact, we seem to be following the culture in its political life in two ways. First, spin has become the name of the game for both liberals and conservatives.

Second, there is a great deal of demonization and lack of tolerance and understanding toward those on the other side of issues. We show all the signs of a growing polarization. Most of our present leaders seem to be fueling this polarization and few seem to be addressing it.

Many people on the pro side of this issue claim that this decision has opened the doors of the Episcopal Church to thousands of new people. Some have pointed out the threats of a major split have not played out. On the other hand, many people on the conservative side have claimed that large numbers of people are leaving. What is really happening regarding membership and numbers?

As I said, many of these comments are just spin. What we mostly hear are anecdotal stories. For example, from the liberal side, we hear of people joining the church because of our decision. I think this has minimal statistical effect. We have been a declining denomination and we will continue to be so. The current crisis is predictably accelerating this decline.

It is true that even a declining church brings in new people and it is probably true that our front door is more open right now to those on the political left of the current culture wars in America.

In addition, The Episcopal Church, which has had a very low public profile, is now unfortunately seen as a divided church. Most un-churched people don't look for a polarized community when seeking a spiritual home.

Some conservative people are attempting to spin events too, but it is clear that the Church has clearly taken a hit. We saw this first in 2004 financially and will see this further in 2005.

We will not see the total effect upon our attendance until the 2005 parochial reports are out. When they are out, we will see a decline in average Sunday attendance. There will also be a turn down in membership.

While the financial turn down is of significance, the more important issue for the long run will be average Sunday attendance. I believe we will see a 5-to-10-percent decrease over the next four years.

What will be the next steps in this crisis?

Right now we are living in a transitional moment. Things are on hold. I know personally that many people are waiting to hear from the wider communion and are being very patient, surprisingly so. We have reached a point where there seems to be little that the Episcopal Church can do to resolve this polarization. Essentially, we are waiting on three predictable next steps.

First will be the report of the Eames Commission in October.

I believe this commission will make some effort to distance the whole communion from the American and Canadian Church. It will be impossible to hold the worldwide communion together without some strong language directed at North America. I predict the report will contain both strong language and typical Anglican ambiguity when it comes to actions. In the long run, the Commission will attempt to hold the Communion together by affirming all sides.

Second will be the reaction of the Primates to the report.

If the report is not strong enough, the global south may very well threaten alternative action. A key player in this is, of course, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams. While I believe he will want a more moderated response, he may be forced to choose between the global South and North America. Given that choice he must choose the vast majority.

Third will be the first House of Bishops meeting following these two events.

This will be a sort of last chance for the American Church to moderate its strident and self-righteous tone and take a more reconciling position toward the wider communion. This will be a most critical moment for ECUSA.

Personally, I don't believe the present House of Bishops is up to the challenge. I believe they will attempt to defend their decisions and hold the line affirming their autonomy as a province. If they do this, they will hasten the realignment of Anglicanism both here and on the international level.

The Rev. Kevin Martin heads Vital Church Ministries based in Plano, Texas.